Friday night’s Premier League meeting at Elland Road brings together two sides level on points, with Opta Stats’ data offering encouragement for Leeds United ahead of Nottingham Forest’s visit.
Leeds have won their last three home league games against Forest and have scored in all 25 of their top-flight meetings with them at Elland Road, while they are also unbeaten in Premier League night matches at home this season.
With Forest owning the second-lowest shot conversion rate in the division, OPTA's numbers suggest the hosts may have reason for optimism under the lights.
Elland Road history favours Leeds United
Meetings between Leeds United and Nottingham Forest at Elland Road have historically tilted heavily in the hosts’ favour. Leeds have won their last three Premier League home encounters against Forest, spanning almost three decades. Those victories, coming in 1996, 1999 and 2023, suggest this is not a short-term quirk but a long-standing pattern of home dominance in the fixture.
Forest have never kept a top-flight clean sheet at Elland Road
Forest’s defensive struggles in West Yorkshire are well documented. Since 1924, across 25 top-flight visits to Elland Road, Forest have never once prevented Leeds from scoring. That represents one of the longest active “always conceded” runs for any visiting side at a single stadium in English league history, underlining how consistently Leeds have found attacking joy in this fixture.
Leeds thrive in night matches at home
Friday’s 8pm kick-off aligns with one of Leeds’ strongest performance trends this season. They have won all four of their Premier League home matches played under the lights, with intensity and tempo often overwhelming visiting sides. The highlight was a thumping 4-1 win over Crystal Palace, a game that showcased how the Elland Road atmosphere can translate directly into on-pitch dominance.
Home form compares well with mid-table sides
With 19 points from 12 home matches, Leeds’ record at Elland Road stands up well against several established Premier League clubs. Their home points total places them above teams such as Everton, Crystal Palace and Tottenham in the home-only table, reinforcing the idea that Elland Road remains a genuine asset.
Forest’s struggles in front of goal
Forest arrive with one of the least efficient attacks in the division. With a shot conversion rate of 8.5%, only bottom side Wolves (6.7%) have a lower return than Nottingham Forest in the PremierLeague this season, highlighting a recurring issue with turning pressure into goals. For Leeds, this suggests that defensive discipline rather than outright dominance may be enough to secure a positive result.
DCL nearing another milestone
Dominic Calvert-Lewin arrives into the match in effective form, having scored nine Premier League goals this season. One more would take him into double figures - a landmark that would mark his most productive top-flight campaign in several years and provide Leeds with a reliable focal point in the season run-in. The last Englishman to score 10 league goals in their first season with Leeds United was Matt Smith in 2013-14 (12 in the Championship).
Leeds carrying greater attacking threat
Leeds have also shown greater attacking output than Nottingham Forest across the Premier League season so far, scoring 31 goals compared to Forest’s 24. The Whites have consistently found ways to threaten, with goals spread across multiple players and phases of play. That attacking edge has often been most evident at Elland Road, where Leeds have scored in the vast majority of home fixtures, and it underlines why they remain capable of putting Forest under pressure on Friday night.
